Why Trump’s Midterm Prospects Are Getting Worse

Order a copy of Too Long: https://toolong.news/TL009 With just over a month to go until the US midterm elections, Trump and the Republican Party appear to be doing pretty terrible in the polls, with Trump appearing to lose his entire 2024 voting coalition. In this video, we're taking a look at Trump's unraveling coalition and what it means for the upcoming elections. Can the Democrats Flip Texas?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dqaG4nmNG0 📰 Too Long: https://toolong.news/ 🎉 TLDR Party:  https://toolong.news/pages/tldr-party 📖 Read our Manifesto: https://tldrnews.co.uk/manifesto Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought. TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that's not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can't wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks! Nate Silver, generic ballot average: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model Pew Research on racial/ethnic makeup of Trump’s 2024 coalition: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/behind-trumps-2024-victory-a-more-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-voter-coalition/ Data showing lower income people swung towards Trump between 2020 and 2024: https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020 https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2024 Young people swung towards Trump: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patterns-in-the-2024-election/ New York Times/Siena poll, mid-September: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/15/polls/times-siena-poll-likely-voter-crosstabs.html Lower income voters twice as likely to vote Democratic than Republican at midterms: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/us/politics/trump-midterm-election-poll.html Third of Texan electorate is Hispanic: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2026/09/10/the-u-s-electorates-changing-racial-and-ethnic-makeup/ VoteHub’s Voter Power Index, Hispanic voters have greatest power in House races: https://votehub.com/2026/09/17/where-congress-will-be-decided-hispanic-voters-have-the-most-voting-power/ Florida Republican criticises Trump’s immigration policy: https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/d28e3513-556e-43d8-9f31-0432a7e271f6/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/20/maria-elvira-salazar-republican-trump-immigration G. Elliott Morris, Trump approval by issue: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data NYT, Democrats lead Republicans on all issues except AI: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/us/politics/trump-midterm-election-poll.html?eafs_enabled=false US gas prices: https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=US Trump says gas prices are a small price to pay: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/6095554-trump-gasoline-prices-iran-war/ NBC News poll, majority say Trump’s policies have harmed economy: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-voters-say-trump-hurt-economy-competitive-midterm-election-looms-rcna597868 Trump’s midterm convention, ‘Trumpapalooza’: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-know-about-trumps-unusual-midterm-convention-2026-09-08/ https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-asked-republicans-pretend-m-100000757.html 00:00 - Introduction 01:15 - Trump's 2024 Coalition 02:55 - Collapse of the 2024 Coalition 05:24 - Trump's Broad Unpopularity 06:49 - Conclusion 07:46 - Too Long